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We develop a general framework of identification and estimation for automatic debiased machine learning (DML) where the parameter of interest $θ_0$ is identified by a moment condition involving a nuisance $γ_0$ that may be high dimensional. DML leverages machine learning to estimate $γ_0$ while correcting for regularization and overfitting biases that may otherwise transmit to biased estimation of⋯

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highl⋯

This paper proposes a stage independent multiple sampling plan (SIMSP) to improve inspection efficiency by reducing the number of samples required at each sampling stage. Unlike conventional multiple sampling plans (MSP), the proposed SIMSP eliminates the dependence of each sampling stage on the outcome of the preceding inspection. The proposed approach is developed for non-repairable products sol⋯

Transportation network partitioning is essential for applications such as traffic analysis, simulation, and mobility pattern identification. However, transportation networks combine structural information with heterogeneous operational attributes, ranging from scalar indicators to temporal profiles. Existing approaches generally rely on predefined formulations to integrate these sources of informa⋯

High-dimensional data with sparse structure and spatio-temporal dependence arise in many scientific domains. We develop a Bayesian feature-extraction framework for spatio-temporal settings that employs Gaussian and Diffused-gamma priors to induce structured sparsity. The modeling framework specifies a general likelihood via Bregman divergence, enabling compatibility with a range of loss functions⋯

Self-reported numerical variables in sample surveys are frequently subject to coarsening, as respondents tend to report rounded or heaped values rather than the exact underlying quantity. While the statistical literature offers various model-based solutions, official statistics and public health surveillance routinely require design-based inference on finite-population indicators under complex sam⋯

Classical early-warning signals assume that recovery slows near a tipping point, but in a well-studied CESM simulation of AMOC collapse, autocorrelation and variance decrease instead. We develop a preregistered diagnostic that uses only past data to estimate the slowest mode of a memory operator fitted to the evolving overturning structure. The operator ensemble produces an exploratory alarm 77 ye⋯

The Gini index remains the most important measure of economic inequality worldwide, and accurate estimates of this index are essential for effective public policies. Yet, Gini estimates for the same country and year vary considerably across data sources, a problem that remains largely unresolved. The paper reviews the largest global and regional databases providing Gini estimates, surveys the rela⋯

Bayes factors provide a coherent Bayesian measure of evidence for competing hypotheses and have recently been used as the basis for single-arm phase II trial designs with binary endpoints. In contrast to classical power analyses based on test statistics and p-values, Bayes-factor based sample size calculations target high probabilities of obtaining compelling evidence either for a relevant treatme⋯

It is obvious to say that an adequate estimation of the autocorrelation function is central in time series analysis. In this paper, we propose three new robust estimators based on ratios of observations, which offer strong resistance against outliers. While the first estimator, which is based on the median, is not efficient, the second is a Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) estimator with better effi⋯

I critique a set of entrenched methodological conventions that collectively create systemic dysfunction in statistical research for clinical decisions. These include: (1) the prevalent use of hypothesis tests to compare treatments, (2) remoteness from patient care of the methods used to evaluate the accuracy of predictions of patient outcomes, (3) poor practice of meta-analysis to combine findings⋯

Let $V$ and $U$ be independent standard normal random variables. For any Borel map $φ\colon\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$, set $Y_φ=φ(V)+U$, and define $P_φ(y)=\mathbb{E}[V\mid Y_φ=y]$ and $F_φ(x)=\mathbb{E}[P_φ(x+U)]$. We prove that, if for every $v\in\mathbb{R}$, the quantity $φ(v)$ maximises $x(v-F_φ(x))$ over $x\in\mathbb{R}$, then $φ$ is the identity function. This is the normalised one-period Kyle⋯

Statement by Mr Timur M Suleimenov, Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, on the base rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, Astana, 5 June 2026.

Keynote speech by Mr Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and SAFE Administrator, at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, Shanghai, 17 June 2026.

Text of the Sir Douglas Copland Memorial Lecture to the Economic Society of Australia (Victoria) by Mr Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Melbourne, 24 June 2026.

Speech by Mr Naoki Tamura, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with local leaders, Hyogo, 25 June 2026.

Welcome remarks (via pre-recorded video) by Ms Lisa D Cook, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the State of Small Business Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 24 June 2026.

Speech by Ms Chiara Scotti, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the "6th Dolomiti Macro Meeting", organised by Free University of Bozen, BI Norwegian Business School, Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP), Bozen, 20 June 2026.

Opening remarks by Mr Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, at the 10th Annual Macroprudential Conference, jointly organised with the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Nederlandsche Bank, and the Sveriges Riksbank, Dublin, 22 June 2026.

Speech by Dr Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the International Bankers Forum, Frankfurt am Main, 24 June 2026.

Opening remarks by Mr Martin Kocher, Governor of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Austrian central bank, at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) | SUERF Economics Conference "Monetary policy trade-offs in a heterogeneous currency area", Vienna, 18 June 2026.

Concluding remarks by Mr Martin Kocher, Governor of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Austrian central bank, at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) | SUERF Economics Conference "Monetary policy trade-offs in a heterogeneous currency area", Vienna, 19 June 2026.

Remarks by Mr Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, at Paris Europlace – Chambre de commerce France-Canada, Paris, 23 June 2026.

Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at an exchange of views on "The economic and fiscal implications in Europe of the Middle East crisis", at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, Brussels, 23 June 2026.

Speech At the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California

Speech At The Exchequer Club of Washington D.C., Washington, D.C.

Speech At “Next-Gen Financial Inclusion,” the third annual Financial Inclusion Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)

Speech At “Next-Gen Financial Inclusion,” the third annual Financial Inclusion Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board

Speech At the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York

Speech At a Bank Policy Institute London Conference, London, United Kingdom

Speech At the Financial Stability Board Virtual Outreach Event

Speech At "Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World," a conference sponsored by the Bank of Italy for the research network initiated by the European System of Central Banks, Rome, Italy

Speech At the State of Small Business Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (via pre-recorded video)

Speech At the Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the Dollar, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.

Speech At American University, Washington, D.C.

Speech For the 2026 John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award, John F. Kennedy Library Foundation, Boston, Massachusetts

Monetary policy decision We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The discount for sight deposits above this threshold is unchanged at 0.25 percentage points. If necessary, we have an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We thereby counter a⋯

The SNB is institutionally sound and on a solid footing. Its unique legal form, that of a special-statute joint-stock company administered with the participation and under the oversight of the Confederation, has remained unchanged since its foundation. This special institutional structure contributes significantly to the SNB's independence and stability. The shareholder structure is characterised⋯

The world is going through a period of great uncertainty. As a central bank, we have to accept this as it is - and deal with the uncertainty. The past 25 years have seen several phases of great uncertainty. Nevertheless, the SNB has achieved its objective of price stability. The Swiss economy has also developed favourably overall. We were able to do so because three prerequisites for our work were⋯

Payments are the backbone of a modern economy. Virtually no goods would change hands and virtually no services would be provided in today's world without a functioning payments system. From a macroeconomic perspective, resilience and efficiency are the overarching objectives in the payments system. Payment methods must be secure and, where possible, available continuously; and they must be technic⋯

Monetary policy decision We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The discount for sight deposits above this threshold still stands at 0.25 percentage points. Given the conflict in the Middle East, our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased⋯

Monetary policy decision We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The discount for sight deposits above this threshold still stands at 0.25 percentage points. We remain willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary. Inflation in recent months has been⋯

At its monetary policy assessment in September 2025, the Swiss National Bank decided to leave its policy rate at 0%. The SNB also indicated that it remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary. The SNB makes monetary policy decisions, such as that taken in September, at its monetary policy assessments. These take place in March, June, September and December. Every decis⋯

This paper examines the rapid expansion and convergence of retail betting markets. We analyze market design elements, discuss economic utility, and highlight shared behavioral drivers of sports betting markets, prediction markets, and retail options trading. Our review underscores how technological

A decline in credit scores can worsen the borrower's financial position, making default a self-fulfilling prophecy. We estimate the causal effect of credit scores on default using a rule that counts multiple inquiries within 14 days as one, moving scores without changing credit reports. Regression

We conducted a survey experiment with over 8,000 participants in Germany, Hungary, and Italy to examine how information about the economic impact of immigration affects the support for more open immigration policies. Respondents who received projections showing higher future incomes under more open

This paper provides the first causal estimates of the global social returns to U.S. public R&D. We use a narrative identification strategy to quantify the effects of exogenous shocks to U.S. R&D appropriations on the dynamic TFP response of 69 foreign economies from 19802019. A U.S. R&D

Unique global data on 47,000 consumers across 47 countries representing 90% of world GDP reveal universal patterns in macroeconomic belief formation. Most consumers form beliefs based on local information sources (utility bills, shopping, and acquaintances) that provide signals not representative

The canonical approach to corporate governance posits a tradeoff between maximizing shareholder profits and maximizing other aspects of shareholder welfare such as social impact. Advances in machine learning that enhance the firm's ability to target specific customers may exacerbate or ameliorate

Economic sanctions on oil-producing autocracies change not only the quantity of oil but also how it is produced. Combining field-level production data with satellite measurements of gas flaring and atmospheric methane across six Latin American countries from 2012 to 2024, we study the U.S. sanctions

We develop a new measure of impact elasticity: the change in a firm's environmental impact due to a change in its cost of capital. We find that reducing green firms' financing costs leads to minimal impact changes, while increasing brown firms' financing costs causes significant negative impact

We document a robust industry-level distress anomaly in which more distressed industries earn significantly lower expected equity returns. The anomaly is distinct from the firm-level distress anomaly (Campbell, Hilscher and Szilagyi, 2008). It remains significant after controlling for firm-level

We provide new estimates of the effects of universal child care on the long-term labor outcomes of mothers, documenting the life-cycle impact of Quebecs universal, subsidized child care program on maternal labor supply, earnings, social program benefit receipt and tax remittances. We find an

Research on strategic factor markets has largely treated the terms of exchange as price. We argue that many strategic transactions instead divide value through contractual bundles in which payment terms and control rights are interdependent. In university technology licensing, we theorize Rights

How does information disclosure reshape the allocation of environmental risk in the housing market? We quantify the price and distributional impact of the nationwide disclosure of property-level flood risk from First Street on U.S. housing platforms. Using a difference-in-RD design that exploits

This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions, showing that perceived default risk is a sufficient statistic for credit frictions. Using UK administrative data (2004–2019) matched to S&P risk measures, counterfactual estimate⋯

Salt was a key fiscal resource in premodern Europe. The ability of states to appropriate salt shaped patterns of fragmentation and consolidation of territories. We propose a model demonstrating that when and where salt was non-appropriable by a central authority, it produced more fragmented partitions. Territories with non-appropriable resources could fund rebellion and resist incorporation, which⋯

News aggregators are among the primary gatekeepers of online news, shaping both consumption and production through the algorithms that rank stories and sources. We provide the first large scale estimates of this algorithmic power using the example of Yandex News, Russia’s largest aggregator. Combining archived front pages with 12.3 million published articles and outlet-level traffic data, we estim⋯

Voters in multiparty systems often fail to coordinate on majority-preferred parties. Using constituency-level election data linked to party-ideology measures across 96 countries, we show that in 20–30% of multiparty elections since 1940 the Condorcet winner does not win, and in roughly 10% the winner is the Condorcet loser. Failures are most common under plurality rule and in fragmented, volatile⋯

The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) rests on the premise that one carbon credit compensates for one tonne of emissions. While a growing body of evidence questions the integrity of many credits, much less is known about whether the ability to offset affects firms’ incentives to reduce their own emissions. Using a buyer-linked dataset covering the near-universe of offset retirements, we exploit the 20⋯

Using text-as-data methods, we quantify the U.S. discourse on China, place it in historical perspective, and compare its evolution across different sources of public narrative. Our analysis is based on a large corpus of materials drawn from public records (presidential and congressional records, newspaper articles, social media, think tank reports). We develop two measures of narrative discourse:⋯

Quantifying merger effects and conducting other counterfactual analyses is often difficult in platform markets because direct and indirect network effects link demand within and across market sides. We develop a general empirical framework for two-sided markets that incorporates these effects within an otherwise standard empirical IO approach. The framework does not impose a particular demand spec⋯

We study the long-run effects of a large public expansion of pre-primary education in Argentina. Between 1993 and 1999, the federal government financed the construction of new preschool classrooms targeted to departments with low baseline enrollment and high poverty, creating roughly 186,000 additional places. We link administrative records on classroom construction to four population censuses and⋯

We present the first large-scale field experiment evaluating the integration of generative AI into a national justice system. In partnership with Pakistan's judiciary, we built JudgeGPT, a custom generative AI assistant designed for Pakistan's trial courts, and randomized 1,559 judges serving across 118 courts into one of three arms: (i) access to the assistant with targeted training tailored to i⋯

Abstract: Divorce reshapes family life, yet little is known about one of its most consequential features: the allocation of child custody. We study the impact of joint versus sole custody on both parents and children using rich administrative data from Sweden linked to over 25 years of newly-collected court custody rulings. To address selection concerns, we exploit random assignment of custody dis⋯

Discrete policy thresholds are pervasive in tax and regulatory systems and can substantially distort behavior. We show that notches acting as barriers to mobility within a distribution generate distortions extending far beyond the threshold. The same mechanism biases conventional difference-in-differences estimators, and we propose a new methodology to recover causal effects. Applying the method t⋯

Using administrative data on the largest group of German labor market entrants - graduates from an apprenticeship in a specific occupation - this paper studies the effect of entry conditions on occupational mismatch. Higher entry unemployment entails persistent earnings losses driven by full-time wage effects. Concurrently, occupational matching falls, accounting for 20% of the wage effect. A fram⋯

Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis, this paper updates, for 123 countries, the estimates of tax capacity—defined as the maximum level of revenue a country can feasibly achieve— and tax effort —measured as the ratio of actual tax revenue to tax capacity. It also introduces two novel models that decompose the frontier tax gap —the difference between actual tax revenues and tax capacity— into tax pol⋯

This paper argues that a progressive tax system combined with individual taxation of married couples can generate more revenue than the current household-based U.S. system, especially when the extra revenues do not induce negative labor supply effects through increased government transfers. A progressive system that taxes individuals rather than couples jointly leads to larger labor force particip⋯

In a coordinated effort to curb tax evasion, governments systematically exchange information about bank accounts with foreign owners. We study the compliance effects of the policy in the context of South Africa using information reports on 1 million foreign bank accounts linked to income and audit data. We find that self-reported foreign income increased sharply and persistently at the onset of in⋯

This paper analyzes the valuation of publicly traded stocks subject to capital income and wealth taxation when expected returns are time-varying. We show that, in an efficient capital market, investor valuation coincides with the market price under a broad class of tax systems, including accrued and realized capital gains taxation. The result holds for arbitrary holding periods provided that tax s⋯

This paper provides an early empirical, ex post assessment of how MNEs have responded to the introduction of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT). The GMT, implemented in 2024, represents a fundamental change in international taxation. The paper analyses the realised responses of MNEs exploiting the EUR 750 million threshold to identify causal effects. Specifically, the paper uses group level financial an⋯

Do firms respond similarly to corporate tax incentives across countries? We provide globally comparable estimates of the corporate elasticity of taxable income using administrative tax return data from sixteen countries and a unified empirical framework. Exploiting bunching at a common kink, zero taxable income, we estimate elasticities ranging from 0.08 to 1.9, with an average of 0.79. To explain⋯

Firms in the digital economy often pay little tax in the countries where their customers are based. In response, market countries have introduced digital service taxes on the revenue of these firms to indirectly tax their profits. We study the incidence of these taxes using data on Amazon, the largest online retailer. We find that in most countries, Amazon increased its fees by roughly the amount⋯

This paper asks how local tax revenues should be attributed when tax rates, tax bases or tax-sharing arrangements are shaped by higher-level governments. To address this question, it combines tax attribution criteria from the System of National Accounts (SNA) with a historical and institutional analysis of key country cases that exemplify tax sharing and centrally determined local taxation, notabl⋯

This paper studies optimal fiscal policy in an economy with frictional labor markets. We show that, under standard efficiency conditions, a suitable combination of constant taxes implements the first-best allocation, with public debt absorbing government spending shocks. Labor market frictions therefore do not overturn the basic tax smoothing principle: taxes remain stable while debt adjusts to fi⋯

This paper studies how administrative consolidation affects the performance and cost of fiscal capacity. While consolidation may reduce administrative costs by exploiting scale effects, it may also disrupt the accumulated organizational resources and routines through which governments collect taxes. We examine this trade-off, focusing on Japan’s Great Heisei Municipal Mergers, a large wave of mu⋯

I study optimal taxation in a directed–search economy with moral hazard, in which firms post output–contingent wage contracts that provide workers with insurance and incentives. Because the market prices these margins, the income tax is freed to redistribute alone: it is lump sum under a utilitarian planner, and under a non–utilitarian planner its marginal rate takes the transparent form Ï„â⋯

We examine the aggregate effects of government spending and tax changes in a monetary union. We show theoretically that government consumption and government investment shocks have multipliers above 1, and consumption tax and income tax shocks have multipliers below 1. We test the predictions on quarterly euro area data, identifying the four fiscal shocks in a panel structural vector autoregressio⋯

This paper proposes a novel approach to estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) of firm owners using a quasi-natural experiment and new theoretical insights on spending responses to anticipated dividend tax changes. We study Norway's dividend tax reform, announced in 2004 and implemented in 2006, which raised the dividend tax rate by 28 percentage points. Using administrative d⋯

This paper analyses corporate income tax incentives for investment in ten Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. It finds that incentives are often tax exemptions, but expenditure-based incentives are more common than in other developing regions. Tax incentives tend to involve multiple eligibility criteria and are implemented through fragmented legal and institutional frameworks. The paper⋯

This study develops a Salop-type circular model to analyze the impact of Japan's Hometown Tax Donation system (Furusato Nozei) on the fiscal balance of local governments and household economic welfare. In the model, households endogenously choose the local government to which they donate based on the donation price, the brand strength of the reciprocal gifts, and idiosyncratic attachment. The syst⋯

Since 2015, French municipalities facing high housing market pressures have been allowed to levy a surcharge on the housing tax applied to second homes. Using a synthetic differencein-differences design, we find a substantial decline in the declared number of second homes and a significant increase in housing tax revenues in treated municipalities, but no evidence of a decrease in housing prices.⋯

We examine the intergenerational effect of education policy on crime. Using administrative data that links outcomes across generations with crime records, we show that the Swedish comprehensive school reform, gradually implemented between 1949 and 1962, reduced conviction rates for both the generation directly affected by the reform and their sons. The reduction in conviction rates occurred in s⋯

This paper develops a tractable model of offender location choice and police resource allocation across multiple areas. Individuals differ in the cost of apprehension and choose whether to commit crime and, if so, where. Each area contains a fixed value of criminal opportunities, so offenders impose congestion on one another, while policing affects expected apprehension. For arbitrary policing lev⋯

Decision-makers can exhibit biases when they overemphasize particularly salient features under limited attention. We exploit a sudden salience shock involving individuals of Moroccan descent to examine biases within the Dutch criminal justice system. The salience shock concerned the assassination of a defense attorney by organized crime and thus specifically targeted the justice system. Leveraging⋯

Research shows that lawyers affect legal outcomes, but little is known about how clients choose lawyers. We conduct an experiment with plaintiffs in the Mexico City Labor Court. We compare plaintiffs’ choice of lawyers in a control group and two treatment groups: one that increases the plaintiff’s knowledge of likely case outcomes and the other that facilitates meetings with public lawyers. Th⋯

Can the judiciary help root out government corruption? This paper exploits the random assignment of court cases to justices who exhibit varying degrees of strictness to examine how convicting corrupt officials affects local government outcomes in the Philippines. I document that convictions improve the management of local public finances and reduce associated corruption. An exploration of mechanis⋯

We develop a strategy to measure the economic costs of poorly written laws, a potential threat to the rule of law. Using the full corpus of Italian legislation, we show that legal uncertainty — measured by the probability of disagreement between the Supreme Court of Cassation and lower courts — is higher for cases involving poorly written laws and varies systematically across courts. To identi⋯

The paper evaluates the impact of the reform of the judicial map on the functioning of Italian civil justice. Implemented between 2013 and 2014, the reform abolished all branch offices and merged several small first-instance courts, substantially increasing the size of judicial districts and the scale at which civil justice services are provided. According to our findings, the reform led to a redu⋯

We examine the impact of whistleblowing protection laws on wages, integrating both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We find that strengthened legal protection leads to significant shifts in wage levels, highlighting an unexpected consequence of these legal changes. Specifically, companies with a history of misconduct may lower wages for their employees in response to enhanced whistleblower⋯

This paper examines the activity efficiency of competition authorities in Central and Eastern European countries by developing a simple, externally verifiable fine-to-budget indicator. The study focuses on the directly measurable segment of competition authority activity: competition-related fines imposed in the areas of abuse of dominance, cartels, and merger violations, relative to the budget al⋯

Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death among people aged 5–29. Where traffic laws are weakly enforced, it is unclear whether road safety interventions can change behavior. We run a randomized controlled trial among 203 Kenyan minibuses, testing whether an incentive scheme improves safety overall or merely shifts unsafe driving to unmonitored times. Drivers reduce speeding by 29 perce⋯

This paper provides a full characterization of the competitive effects of horizontal mergers in the Cournot model with heterogeneous firms and constant marginal costs. We show that price effects depend only on the smaller merging firm's market share and the number of firms but are independent of the distribution of market shares among other firms. Standard concentration measures, instead, are ofte⋯

The changing global economic landscape is likely to expose the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) and Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) regions to more frequent external shocks, putting a premium on resilient and flexible macroeconomic policy frameworks. By using empirical analysis and model-based scenarios, this paper highlights the important roles of policy frameworks in stabilizing M⋯

This paper investigates the transmission of oil price shocks to the banking sector in oil-dependent economies, using Oman as a case study. We develop a DSGE model featuring an integrated banking block with endogenous credit rationing and a sovereign wealth fund stabilization rule, calibrated to Omani institutional targets and disciplined by Bayesian methods. Our structural approach disentangles tw⋯

Austria started to slowly recover in 2025 after two years of recession, but the energy shock due to the Middle East conflict is weighing on the outlook. A large and complex banking sector with significant exposure to Central Eastern and Southeastern European countries (CESEE) dominates the financial sector. Despite domestic and external headwinds and a rise in NPLs in recent years in commercial re⋯

Despite the continuation of Russia’s war into its fifth year, Ukraine has maintained macroeconomic stability under extremely challenging conditions supported by large-scale and sustained external financing and prudent policy making. Pressures are intensifying, however, with headwinds from a more challenging external environment following the outbreak of war in the Middle East and spikes in aerial⋯

Portugal’s large GDP-per-capita gap with the highest-income euro area economies and the US is primarily driven by a productivity shortfall. At the EU level, European leading firms, particularly in the tech sector, trail leading global counterparts in productivity and innovation, partly reflecting far less R&D investment rooted in less reliance on equity. In Portugal, those factors are compounded b⋯

European countries face rising spending pressures and higher interest costs that could sharply increase debt and threaten growth if left unaddressed. The paper argues that maintaining fiscal sustainability requires a coordinated strategy combining structural reforms and fiscal consolidation, and in some cases deeper changes to the role of government, as incremental approaches are no longer suffici⋯

This report presents the findings and recommendations from an assessment of Uganda’s public sector debt statistics (PSDS) using the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for PSDS. The assessment was undertaken in November 2025 as part of an initiative—funded by the Government of Japan—to strengthen the quality of public sector debt data in select African countries. Uganda’s risk of extern⋯

Selected Issues

The Gambia is highly vulnerable to external and climate shocks. The war in the Middle East is negatively impacting the country’s economic activity, inflation, tourism, and remittance flows. Presidential elections are scheduled for December 2026. Exposure to climate risks is significant.

Selected Issues

Greece’s external sector has undergone significant transformation over the past decades. Pre-crisis imbalances—including large fiscal deficits, household overinvestment, and elevated labor costs—have largely been corrected. Nevertheless, the current account deficit remains sizable, reflecting persistent challenges such as subdued private saving, low value added in exporting sectors, and high exter⋯

This report documents the development, testing, validation, and implementation of a nowcasting and near term forecasting system within the Bank of Mongolia’s monetary policy framework. The system supports timely macroeconomic surveillance and the conduct of monetary policy by providing a more systematic and reliable assessment of near-term economic conditions.

At a meeting of the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) on 24 July, members considered a request from the Russian Federation for the establishment of a dispute panel to review the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Package and alleged export subsidy under the EU scheme for trading greenhouse gas emission allowances. The DSB Chair, Ambassador Guilherme de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil),⋯

In my previous two posts on the value of the WTO, I argued that when governments set trade policies independently, they focus on domestic effects but often overlook the costs imposed on trading partners. International trade agreements help governments take account of these cross-border spillovers (terms-of-trade externalities) by encouraging reciprocal negotiations over trade policy. While these n⋯

A new Trade Policy Activity (TPA) index by WTO and IMF economists shows a marked rise in trade policy activity during 2025-26, alongside heightened trade policy tensions among large economies, against the backdrop of an overall upward trend.

At a meeting of the Council for Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) on 22-23 July, members discussed notifications of intellectual property legislation, pandemic preparedness, technology transfer, the relationship between the TRIPS Agreement and the Convention on Biological Diversity , and cooperation among IP offices. The meeting, chaired by Ambassador Alaa Hegazy (Egypt⋯

The Eighth review of the trade policies and practices of India takes place on 21 and 23 July 2026. The basis for the review is a report by the WTO Secretariat and a report by the Government of India.

On 17 July 2026, the United States notified the WTO’s Committee on Safeguards that it had initiated on 13 July 2026 a safeguard investigation on imports of lamb meat.

WTO members reached consensus on 16 July on a slate of names of the chairpersons for 13 subsidiary bodies that report to the Council for Trade in Goods.

A European Commission report published today on customs controls at the EU’s external borders highlights the need for stronger controls and enhanced cooperation to help protect consumers and businesses in the EU internal market.

From 1 July 2026, the EU will apply a temporary €3 customs duty per item on low-value consignments (up to €150) imported from outside the EU, abolishing the duty exemption applicable until 30 June 2026.

The European Commission welcomes today’s Decision adopted by the EU-Türkiye Customs Cooperation Committee (CCC) to mutually recognise the respective Authorised Economic Operator programmes (AEO MRA).

The European Commission has presented its Annual Report on Taxation (ART), offering a detailed overview of taxation policies in all EU countries. This report assesses recent trends in EU tax systems and identifies ways to enhance compliance.

The 9th Seminar of European Customs Chemists (9SECC) took place in Stockholm, Sweden, from 1 to 3 July 2026 under the theme ‘Fostering Unity in Uncertain Times’.

As of 1 July 2026, two amendments introduced by Commission Implementing Regulation 2026/1422 amending the Union Customs Code Implementing Regulation (UCC‑IA) to the procedural rules relating to non-preferential proofs of origin are applicable.

Starting today, the EU abolishes an outdated customs duty exemption for e-commerce packages worth less than €150. The measure will help to ensure fair conditions for EU businesses and safe choices for consumers, in response to the surge of billions of low-value e-commerce goods entering the EU.

The European Commission adopted an ambitious tax simplification package that includes two legislative proposals aimed at simplifying EU tax rules, reducing compliance burdens for businesses, and strengthening the competitiveness of the Internal Market.

The Implementation Dialogue on the EU Customs Reform, held on 8 June 2026 under the chairmanship of Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, brought together representatives from industry, trade associations, and the Commission to discuss the practical aspects of implementing the recently agreed Customs Reform.

The European Commission welcomes the Council agreement to extend the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to specific downstream goods and reinforce existing anti-circumvention safeguards.

On Thursday 7 May 2026, DG TAXUD hosted the second in a series of webinars on the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

ICS2 is already providing concrete benefits for customs authorities on the frontline, protecting citizens and the EU economy. Take a look at examples of ICS2 in action in 2025.

The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.

The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.

The ongoing economic uncertainty from global geopolitical threats, supply chain disruptions, rising interest rates, and lagging economic growth in many developed countries have highlighted the importance of private business investment.

Although sometimes overlooked in discussions about corporate taxation, capital allowances play an important role in a country’s corporate tax base and can impact investment decisions—with far-reaching economic consequences.

The 12-year history of Tax Foundation’s ITCI shows that tax policy is constantly in flux around the world and that tax policy design choices matter for economic growth.

Retail prices make poor targets for excise tax policy, often reflecting factors that have little to do with the underlying reasons for which an excise tax is levied in the first place. Unfortunately, the World Health Organization (WHO) has a growing preference for using tax share of retail price (tax incidence) as a primary policy target.

However well-intended they may be, sales tax holidays remain the same as they always have been—ineffective and inefficient.

Foreign R&D generally complements domestic innovation rather than substituting for it, so penalizing foreign R&D weakens US firms in cross-border mergers and acquisitions and in domestic production that depends on global scale.

Policymakers are increasingly considering taxes on data processing and other businesses’ digital services, but these taxes increase costs at many stages of the production process for virtually all businesses, not just tech-oriented businesses.

The EU public country-by-country data provides information on taxes and profits that do not align with standard financial disclosure requirements.

Because withholding taxes can create double taxation and administrative friction even where foreign tax credits are available, the European Commission’s 2026 Tax Omnibus proposal to eliminate them on dividend, interest, and royalty payments between EU companies regardless of holding percentage would foster stronger cross-border savings and investment.

NYC’s congestion tolling has reduced congestion, raised money for the MTA, and sped up vehicles in the city. Its success has inspired proposals for congestion tolling in other major US cities, like Los Angeles and Washington, DC.

When poseurs and yes-men run a war

The willful ignorance, it burns

Going where the money — and the power — is

Oligarchy, wealth taxes, and more

Why the world economy is still at risk from the Iran debacle

The useful narcissism of the new class of oligarchs

Can the takeover be stopped?

How to lose friends and influence nothing

Trying to punish Brazil for adopting a better payment system

The history and theory of taxes on the elite

Talking with one of our sharpest minds on market power

His biggest lie wasn’t about elections

Suppose that apples sell for more than oranges and Parliament in it’s wisdom decides that, at last, apples and oranges must be compared. Not by shoppers — shoppers are biased, they merely reveal what they are willing to pay — but by a tribunal, which will determine whether apples and oranges are of truly equal […] The post The Apples and Oranges Tribunal appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION .

AEA is the American Economics Association, and a new president is needed, here is the candidate and likely winner: PINELOPI (PENNY) KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG, William Nordhaus Professor of Economics and Global Affairs, Yale University. Statement of Purpose: I am honored to stand for President of the American Economic Association. Economics has long contributed powerful tools to understand […] The post Th⋯

Total fertility rates in East Asia have fallen to levels without historical precedent, even though the region’s Confucian heritage long placed extraordinary emphasis on family continuity and large families. We argue that this “Confucian Fertility Paradox” dissolves once we separate two strands of the tradition and recognize that modernization affected them very differently. The pro-natal […] The p⋯

A very good book, here is one excerpt that bears directly on a conversation I was just having: He [Bryce] regretted the low quality of the Indian Civil Service: they were hard-working and motivated by a desire to promote the welfare of the Indian people, but ‘rather wanting in imagination and sympathy, less inspired by […] The post *Liberal Worlds: James Bryce and the Democratic Intellect* appeare⋯

1. Cameroonian prison with its own record label. 2. Noah on what will AI do for us exactly. 3. The impact of the sewing machine on women. 4. Will GPTVoice boost labor supply? 5. Smart phones in North Korea. 6. SSI update. 7. “There is still time for interested scholars to apply to our next […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION .

Could our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem? In some ways, encouraging people to think and talk more about their mental health is a good thing. There is now less stigma around mental illness, and more people who can benefit from professional help are getting it. But there is also reason to […] The post Could our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem? appeare⋯

We document that the diffusion of new scientific ideas beyond their field of origin has declined substantially over the past four decades. This contraction is closely linked to increasing specialization in scientific language: research that employs more technical terminology tends to be adopted less broadly. We develop a theory of scientific discovery in which the […] The post The Decline in the T⋯

Despite rapid inflation in childcare and tuition prices, the goods-and-services CCI closely tracks adult prices, as these increases are offset by children’s lower exposure to shelter and by slower price growth elsewhere in the child basket. Households devote substantially more real resources to children than they did in 1990, but this increase parallels the growth […] The post In relative terms, m⋯

The share of people who are hungry has been decreasing faster in South America than anywhere else in the world. It is down by one-third since 2020, according to a report published on July 21st by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Just 3.5% of people in the region consume insufficient calories, the lowest […] The post Further progress in South America appeared first on Marginal REVO⋯

1. Deirdre economics reading list. 2. The 1878 entrance exam for the British India civil service. 3. How good is Opus 5 on biology? 4. “A linguistic “golden age” flourished between 1,000 to 3,000 years ago when tens of thousands of languages were spoken throughout the world, according to a new study coauthored by Yale […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION .

I have an amateur interest in Oriental rugs but my eye is untrained. Thus, for fun and learning I created with Fable a Rug Atlas and quiz. The Rug Belt Atlas Check it out. Constructive comments welcome. P.S. The site is in fact safe! Working on getting it recognized. The post The Rug Belt Atlas and Quiz appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION .

When a new technology promises large private benefits but may impose social costs that markets do not price, demand need not reveal how citizens want it governed. We examine this using a nationally representative U.S. survey experiment (N=5,556) on human enhancement technologies (HET). The experiment randomizes benefit domain, mechanism, heritability, purpose, and risk across vignettes; […] The po⋯

A quick reply to Alex Callinicos

A four-class society (a long read)

How Western capitalists use China-bashing to deflect attention from their soaring profits

Dearth of Chinese lessons for the rest of the world

A review of Christian Christiansen’s “Designing Global Economic Equality”

On football’s extreme commercialization

What would be the likely effects of massive introduction of artificial intelligence in the economy, from the Marxist point of view?

For full happiness is possible only in stagnation.

I prepared two “weekly rants” on AI which will come out in a few weeks.

This is an essay I wrote for Hoover’s Freedom Frequency substack, in their series on the founders.

Follow the money past the initial recipient.

I wrote two opeds on the future of the Fed for the Washington Post. Full text of the first one, focusing on monetary policy, in my previous post here. The second focusing on financial regulation is joint with Amit Seru.

As part of a big revision of “Inflation”, a short book resulting from last year’s Brunner lecture, I wrote the following short section.

This is an OpEd at the Washington Post. Their title: “How to protect the economy from the ghosts of 1979.” (Really 1951!) I posted an excerpt a month ago. Here is the full version.

The G7 (Group of 7) economic confab is on in the lovely Evian-Les-Bains, France.

The recent Piketty-Saez-Stiglitz revival of wealth taxes, ostensibly to improve the lot of the poor, makes many mistakes.

New OpenAI research shows how AI is expanding what workers do, with ChatGPT users taking on tasks across roles and reshaping job boundaries.

Health in ChatGPT now lets eligible U.S. users securely connect medical records and Apple Health to get more personalized insights and better understand their health.

OpenAI announces Project Camellia in Effingham County, Georgia, with commitments to responsible energy, community investment, jobs, and access to Codex.

News organizations are using AI to strengthen reporting, grow audiences, and improve business operations, with OpenAI tools supporting journalists and publishers worldwide.

OpenAI outlines its commitment to advancing American science working with the U.S. Department of Energy and national labs to use frontier AI to accelerate discovery.

Introducing OpenAI Presence, a proven enterprise AI agent platform that helps organizations deploy trusted voice and chat agents for customer and internal workflows.

NTT DATA Group uses ChatGPT Enterprise and Codex to help 9,000 employees automate work, cut incident analysis to 30 minutes, and scale secure AI adoption.

OpenAI launches the ChatGPT for Small Businesses program, helping entrepreneurs build AI skills, automate work, and grow with ChatGPT Work.

Google commits $40M in AI tokens and credits for the Genesis Mission

We’re introducing new Gemini models, including Gemini 3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite and 3.5 Flash Cyber.

Google introduces Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber, a lightweight cybersecurity model to find and patch vulnerabilities.

Google DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs are sharing our joint approach to bioresilience and AI models.

Google and AIM launched ATL Saathi, a Gemini-powered AI tool empowering Indian educators in robotics labs.

What's changed Bug fixes and reliability improvements

What's changed Added Claude Opus 5 ( claude-opus-5 ), now the default Opus model — 1M context, fast mode at $10/$50 per Mtok Added sandbox.network.strictAllowlist setting to deny non-allowlisted hosts for sandboxed commands without prompting Added DirectoryAdded hook that fires after /add-dir or the SDK register_repo_root control request registers a new working directory mid-session Added mcp_serv⋯

What's changed Changed /code-review to run as a background subagent, so review work no longer fills your conversation and keeps stacked slash commands as its review target Added screen-reader announcements of deleted text for word and line deletions ( Option+Delete , Ctrl+W , Cmd+Backspace , Ctrl+U , Ctrl+K ) in --ax-screen-reader mode Fixed Windows paths with \u -prefixed segments (like C:\Users\⋯

What's changed Added emoji shortcode autocomplete in the prompt input: type :heart: to insert ❤️, or :hea for suggestions — disable with the emojiCompletionEnabled setting Added warnings when transcript writes are failing (e.g. disk full) or when session saving is off due to an inherited environment variable, instead of losing transcripts silently Fixed a memory leak where truncated MCP tool outpu⋯

What's changed Added sandbox.filesystem.disabled setting to skip filesystem isolation while keeping network egress control Fixed a slowdown in long sessions where message normalization cost grew quadratically with the number of turns, causing multi-second stalls and slow resumes Fixed auto mode denying commands with "HTTP 401" classifier errors after the OAuth token expired or rotated mid-session⋯

What's changed Claude no longer runs the /verify and /code-review skills on its own; invoke them with /verify or /code-review when you want them

ML research is progressing at breakneck speed where frontier labs in both academia and industry have access to considerably large computes (GPUs). Where do small labs or independent researchers go in this context? Have you come across recent works in ML/DL and its applications (vision, language, speech, etc) where the work is good but it uses very limited compute? Maybe even single GPU workstation⋯

We can currently answer the meta-reviewer via AC confidential comment, but they just posted the following tweet: https://x.com/neuripsconf/status/2081991451236319328?s=46&t=HWfJoLgHxGH2W5l-o3mPJw Where it says: “Please post your answers to the Area Chair's initial-meta reviews via a comment from July 28th and by August 3rd, so that reviewers can see it too.” Is this option going to open up today a⋯

It looks like the post rebuttal button will change to official comment July 27 AoE. Will I be able to edit my rebuttal once that happens?

I'm really confused about what the point of the prompt injection was (speaking as an author). Is it just a study? I would really prefer that they took action against the AI-generated reviews. Obviously, we cannot assume that the reviewers were copy-pasting the output from the LLM without having given it any look at all, but in some cases that does look to be the case. In fact, in some cases the me⋯

Hi everyone! 👋 I built and trained the complete Transformer architecture from scratch using pure PyTorch (`torch.nn` primitives) based on the original " Attention Is All You Need " paper. I trained the model on an English-to-Tamil parallel translation dataset (` gopi30/english-tamil ` on Hugging Face) using dual NVIDIA T4 GPUs on Kaggle. I wrote a detailed mathematical breakdown and step-by-step⋯

This was my Bachelor's Final Project: implementing YOLO26n inference completely from scratch using ARM64 Assembly Language and C, without relying on existing inference frameworks. The goal was to understand how modern neural network inference engines work at a low level and explore optimization techniques for faster and more efficient edge AI execution on Raspberry Pi 4. The implementation include⋯

ref: https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30--discount---including-all-produce--all- Let me preface this post by saying I don't want the comments to turn into a discussion of politics. Rather, taking this new policy at face value, I'm curious about: Why wouldn't, say, produce cart vendors buy up a bunch of produce and then go sell it in wealthier area? Won't such st⋯

Worker-managed cooperatives have long been argued in the economic literature to face a structural horizon problem. According to the conventional account, labor-managed firms operating within a market economy may underinvest in long-term productive assets and create less employment than conventional capitalist firms, ultimately generating lower aggregate efficiency. The theoretical rationale is tha⋯

Most discussions of the student loan crisis seem to come down to two extremes. full forgiveness or doing nothing. After some thinking, a more sensible middle ground seems to be reforming the student loan interest deduction, which is currently very restrictive. Raising the $2,500 cap and increasing the income phase out would help far more people benefit. It's not a bailout, people still owe the ful⋯

Following the U.S. occupation after World War II, Japan underwent an economic miracle, becoming one of the fastest growing and best performing economies through the 1970s and 80s. At it's peak, the Japanese economy was second in the world, only to the United States (which held a nearly 3x population advantage), and had a higher GDP then the rest of Asia combined. However, towards the back end of t⋯

There's a lot of talk about how the economy has become bloated with college degree holders and how we need more people to go into the trades instead because there's not enough white collar jobs to go around. How accurate are these views, objectively?

I've been seeing a lot of news about Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world, and it seems like they've made significant progress with new railways, urban districts, industrial parks, and other major infrastructure projects. Is Ethiopia's economy genuinely growing? If so, what's driving that growth? Or am I just falling for government propaganda?